Dynamics of Iran Isreal Conflict in The Middle East
Post Views: 25
Dynamics of Iran Isreal Conflict in The Middle East
The US accuses Iran of being the greatest Threat to world Peace but It is the isreal that is Considered the greatest Threat to World Peace.
The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh-Mahabadi, the architect behind Iran’s nuclear program, has raised the spectre of a major conflict in the run-up to President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration in January. Iran is under unprecedented pressure at home (facing economic reverberations of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign) and in the region (as Tehran struggles to protect its influence in key countries like Iraq and Syria). It has suffered a wave of airstrikes recently, including an attack this week that purportedly killed a senior commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) elite Quds Force near the Syria-Iraq border; in Iraq, the U.S. has imposed sanctions on an array of Iranian front companies. Iran will survive these destabilizing events, though its leaders are convinced the administration (or some within it) sees the next two months as their last chance to settle a series of old scores with Iran. Far from pushing it to the brink, Tehran is still strongly positioned to pick up the pieces as the Trump administration makes its way out.
Iran has long demanded loyalty from its proxies—including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and various armed Shiite groups in Syria and in Iraq—no matter the conditions at home. However, the seriousness of its current domestic crises could be forcing Iran’s leadership to change its priorities. Iran ranks among the top 10 worst-hit countries from the coronavirus pandemic, and multiple reports suggest the country’s official tally of more than 15,000 deaths from COVID-19 is a gross undercount. After imposing a strict lockdown in February when Iran emerged as a major coronavirus hot spot in the Middle East, President Hassan Rouhani has gradually eased restrictions since April, against the advice of health experts, in a bid to revive the economy. U.S. sanctions that the Trump administration reimposed in 2018 had already triggered a deep recession; now, Iran’s GDP has contracted by 15 percent as a result of the pandemic, according to the economy and finance minister, and the currency is plummeting in value against the dolla.
Israel has depended on security cooperation with its neighbors for decades to cope with non-state threats. Of these neighbors, the Palestinian Authority (PA), Jordan, and Egypt are the most important. Given challenges to their models of governance and ongoing economic woes, these governments are each at risk of instability. Meanwhile, of Israel’s regional adversaries, both Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon also could see domestic unrest, which could improve Israel’s position, but offer no guarantees of such improvement. Unrest in Israel’s new partners in the Arab world, including Saudi Arabia, could bring to power more hostile rulers. In general, while sentiment in the Arab world has improved Israel’s position in some quarters, public opinion among the vast majority of Arabs remains, at core, far more sympathetic to the Palestinians and wary of cooperation with Israel. Public opinion may not always directly shape politics, but its potential to do so, as it did in 2011, remains potent. Great power politics in the region stand to undergo important shifts throughout the coming decades, with some already underway. For Israel, the greatest questions regard the United States and the bipartisan commitment to the American special relationship with Israel, its desire for engagement with the region more broadly, and its burgeoning rivalry with China. Should the trajectory of American retrenchment continue, Russia and especially China seem likely candidates to play a greater role in regional geopolitics. Beijing’s interests as a massive energy importer from the region will likely shape its policy choices, and more assertive Chinese regional policies could leave Israel either to navigate mounting U.S.-China competition in its neighborhood or to face the prospect of a dominant external power indifferent to its core interests.
In a noteworthy interview with an Israeli newspaper on Tuesday, Russia has accused Israel of being responsible for the unrest in the Middle East, while relieving Iran and its allies of blame. “The problem in the region is not Iranian activities,” Russian ambassador to Israel Anatoly Viktorov told the Jerusalem Post in comments later shared by Moscow’s embassy in Tel Aviv. “It’s a lack of understanding between countries and noncompliance with U.N. resolutions in the Israel-Arab and Israel-Palestinian conflict.” israelis have steadily annexed and settled across territories deemed Palestinian by the United Nations. Violence between the two sides has stymied peace efforts for decades, though frictions between Israel and Iran, along with fellow pro-Palestinian partners such as Lebanese Shiite Muslim movement Hezbollah, have taken precedence. But Viktorov dismissed Israeli concerns of Hezbollah plots such as infiltrations and rocket attacks, pointing instead to regular Israeli operations against the group and other suspected Iranian assets in countries like neighboring Syria.
Every country, big and small, has the right to employ every means and measures it deems appropriate and adequate to defend itself. International compacts that perpetuate double standards must be rectified to become equitous documents. Iran has the right to defend itself and it should have its own “Samson Option” to the extent of a credible deterrence. In this strategy, Israel has the increasingly evident and proactive support of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, within new links in a chain of regional alliances that should convince Iran to seek a way of political compromise with the counterparts on its borders and drop its hegemonic designs of recent years. Probably, instead of stimulating reprisals and retaliations, Fakhrizadeh’s assassination could paradoxically make a political compromise closer. Both Palestine and Indian held Kashmir are in a parallel situation. India is adopting the playbook of Israel – military brutalism and now settler colonialism. What moral grounds will Pakistan have in condemning India in the case of Kashmir, if Pakistan accepts Israel? None! It will just amount to hypocrisy and double standards. Justice cannot be denied for too long and this is what history teaches us. For instance, France occupied Algeria for almost 130 years, and subsequently the French were driven out by the Algerians. Thus, oppression and injustice do not remain permanently
Writer Shahid Majeed Mir is an author of the book “Untold Stories of Kashmir” and can be reached at [email protected]